In the beginning, the modest investor...
""Ludicrous" is a word in the same category as "irrational" (as in lacking rational thought) or "unreasonable" (as in lacking reason) or "foolish" (as in stupid). It does not fit well into a well-meaning discussion among thoughtful peers.
But even if it did, you should reserve it for cases where you are actually right. A 50% return is NOT ludicrous, or silly, or unreasonable. In fact, the idea that you should expect ANY less with a 5% downpayment is, to put it mildly, far-fetched."
No ego here...
"My hesitation at embracing your choice of words was NOT that ludicrous was offensive (though it was) but that it was wrong. It is NOT absurd to expect that a reasonably competent investor, one who is paying even the slightest attention, can expect returns of 50%."
Jeff knows best...
""I doubt you would make much money on this" indeed. How could you not make money on a house that is going up at 27% a year...dang!
First of all, I am not a flipper. I have no intention in trying to sell this home and "make" my ~30k this year. I am funding my retirement!"
Itsallgood...
"For the Benjonsians...first some good news. Due to some cost over-runs by the builder (can you trust any builders?), plus 4-8 months over on the construction loan limits (I have to pay the interest!), plus some hidden costs on the modification to term loans, the final 3 houses will cost me 10k to 20k to close. If true, this will entirely wipe out my primary cash reserves.
Now the bad news...for you B.J. guys...even using this new conservative approach to valuing my homes (using the minimum value), I still come up with an estimate of an increase of $42k per house--or a total increase of $582k. Another way to look at it, I have turned my original $198k of equity (in my primary residence) into $706k of equity in 14 other houses. This is about a 350% return (albeit "on paper") in roughly 20 months of investing."
Whoops...
"The bad news is...I can't quit my job as night manager at Taco Bell.
The good news...I was fired from my job as night manager at Taco Bell. I am unemployed."
Jeff sasses Ben Jones...
"Once again, my thanks to Mr. Jones...for his help in teaching us "morons" a thing or two about taxes!"
"I love America..."
Everything is FINE...
"Though not as remarkable as my earlier estimates, a conservative 170% is still pretty good for ~20 months of investing..."
Just PEACHY...
"You can state whatever you want, that is the problem with (beauty of?) stated income loans!
The short answer is I "feed it" the same way I purchased it--with 100% borrowed funds."
Cracks in the facade...
"I am having difficulty renting two properties. One in ABQ (slow time of the year) and one in Cape Coral (too much competition or bad PM, I can't decide). These two houses alone are costing me ~3k a month. Ouch!
Change in perspective or approach? I can say that I adamantly wish I hadn't bought any houses in Cape Coral! If only I would of known that they were going to be the worst performing. Except for them, I would say that I am batting a thousand. All my other houses have gone up remarkably and cost me very little each month."
Storm clouds on the horizon...
"O.K., I am sick to my stomach and have tears in my eyes...
The above two cut-and-pastes, taken together, seem to support the view that only the Katrina Go Zone, 1400M(1), qualifies for the bonus depreciation...
I am so MAD at my tax guy, he assured me I qualified (and charged me $750 bucks!). He is "looking into it..." and will get back to me...""
Prophecy time...
"I would of bailed on these houses--took my loses--if I hadn't been given assurances by several professionals that I could get Go-zone depreciation bonuses on these houses. Turns out that is unlikely (not absolutely sure STILL), so sticking with them was an even bigger mistake.
On the flip side, every other purchase I made that year was a good one. So not counting the Cape Coral homes I am WAY ahead. My two SLC houses probably have increased 120k all by themselves. Still, those CC houses really burn my hide...
Anyway, am I happy I did it? You bet. I'll be even happier in 20 years when I retire with 8 million in equity (assuming 6% appreciation).
Or I'll go bankrupt in the next two years...one or the other."
Not looking good...
"Sadly...it looks like those who warned me that Florida properties won't work were right--so far, it might change (acknowledgment to those that warned me this might be the case...).
This is true despite many Realtors and others, (professionals!) swearing to me that Florida DID qualify--including the nationally famous Marshall Reddick."
Uh oh...
"As you suggest...selling one of my SLC houses is a good idea (or a requirement!). In fact, I have been "selling" them for two years...in the sense that a LO is "selling." As it turn out, none of my "sales" has gone through. I hope to hold on for one more year...~25% appreciation (the second highest in the nation) is difficult to walk away from. But I will need the money from one of these houses simply to pay the negative on my "dogs."
I am embarrassed/disappointed to report that I am well into my "back up" reserves. They will hold me for another year or so depending on vacancies. A sale of one of my SLC houses will hold me for another year or so..."
EVERYTHING IS FINE...
"I will be the first to admit that my CC homes are a huge problem, one without any easy solution. But even if I end up losing 30k a piece on them, I am still ahead of the game a couple hundred thousand dollars (so far).
If I would of listened to the Ben Jones crowd I would still be huddled under my bed yelling "the recession is coming, the recession is coming" and praying that everyone else looses their shirts in real estate so that I can "buy in." No thanks.
Am I sorry I took the plunge and did something crazy? No way. I will cry all the way to the bank."
It's not Jeff's fault...
"Sadly, regrettably, this is exactly where I have my houses. Even more sad is I have three of them. I am not the type of person to sue other people (even though I was misled or outright lied to by the broker, the builder, the lender, and the PM!), so I will just be trying to keep up my end of the bargain (even though the builder and the lender did not keep up their end).
These houses were my one clear mistake in my year of purchases (I actually signed contract on 14 houses in 14 weeks). But they are BIG mistakes I am am trying to live with them."
DOH!!!!
"Basically, they promised that I would close on this loan in less than 12 months, and that I would have to bring no money to closing.
Instead, because the builder went over the 12 months (it has been 25 months on one house that has about three more to go). I am paying about $1700 a month holding costs on a house under construction, and I will have to pay about 8k-10k for a refinance on this loan. Times three houses.
Ouch."
It's the lenders' fault...
"The problem is when lenders either lie or encourage other people to lie to get a loan...like the guy whose payments were over 100% of his income--I do blame those type of lenders..."
RUH ROH...
"Well...as many of you know I own three terrible houses in Cape Coral Florida. Through a series of misjudgments and being taken advantage of (and lied to), I am losing ~$1000 on month on each of these houses when they are rented. I am just sick about them and often cannot sleep--like now."
Humble pie...
"I am not so cocky now!
I am in the process of evicting the tenant in one house in SLC. When she leaves I am putting that house up for sale."
RUH ROH RUH ROH...
"I do have some new info to share. One new fact is that "short sales" are now going for as low as 185k for these houses. Ouch!
The lender doesn't even want to discuss with me my options until the house has been on the market 60-90 days...and they won't tell me what price to put it on at for a short sale...I am supposed to just guess and bring offers...
Going to bed...night all. With any luck I'll be able to sleep. I know this has been coming for months now, but I feel that it all became real only in the last couple of days..."
MEGA RUH ROH...
"Depends...these houses "appraised" for 315k. They are selling on the MLS for anywhere from 209k (possible short sales?) to 230k. I was told yesterday that some short sales are going as low as 185k. Selling on the MLS adds an additional cost of ~15k in Realtor fees...
I currently have my empty house on the market as a LO at 284k. I am also offering to carry a 10% second at this price. My agent in the area says this is a "possible"--so far two weeks and no bites."
*** side note: 4/25/07 Jeff busts Nigel on his lack of fact checking ***
*** Jeff disappears ***
Jeff begins to crack up...
"I have been ill...
I can't sleep, I can't eat, when I do eat it comes up. This morning I started the day with a shower and threw up in the shower...
I am barely functioning, I try to read everyone's posts...
To those of you that insist that these houses were a mistake, you were right.
To those of you offering constructive advice and support, thank you.
I try to read everything but the words are just swimming, I'll try again later..."
54 comments:
Thanks Jeff for pricing this bitter renter out of a home.
BTW thanks for filtering out all his post to get a clear look at the rise and fall.
Do people still come to the #3 ranked Foreclosure Avoiders site?
pffft. #2 with a bullet!
can you post a link to where he spanked Nigel?
Jeff didn't really spank him, but he threw up a chart using NAR numbers that showed Nigel didn't know what he's talking about. Hungry Bear shortly after that spanked Nigeypoo pretty well.
If you want Nigel spankage, these threads are pretty good:
major spankage
major spankage
minor spankage
If you skim the Nigel originated threads, it's apparent how Nigel contributes nothing to the board. All he does is spam links back to his own blog to try to steal traffic.
I forgot the most infamous Jeff quote of them all:
"Originally Posted by jj
Do you have an exit strategy if the market does take a wrong turn and is flat or down over the next five years or so?"
My exit strategy is a plain, unadorned, pine box... 7/25/06
One of my favorite parts of that forum is that the jerkoff whose profile pic shows him in all his man-tan glory, and his sign-off is "stay classy." Ironically, he always has the most juvenile, bottom-feeding 'comebacks' of anyone on there.
He's totally (wink-wink, click-click finger shotguns) THAT GUY.
FF,
I think we must discuss terms for a short term truce in light of recent events.
While I am hurt that Foreclosure Avoiders Ruined My Life has fallen to #4 overall, I am more hurt that we are now losing to the Swabtard.
Please advise. I await your response.
Aspeth,
I like the way super investard Smothosity has to change font colors to accentuate his sassiness. Oh no girlfriend, he's not gonna go there...omg he is...BOLD AND BLUE FONT, OH NO HE DIDANT!!! YOU GO SMITHOSITY, SLY JUST GOT SERVED!!!
NGB,
I just checked the rankings, you're #2 and I'm #3. Sweet SwabChat box by the way.
thanks for this summary.
I am blogging to entertain myself. The chatbox made me laugh again, almost as much as when I saw cupcakes open comment experiment was deleted.
Though it looks like we broke the Bat Phone.
Lol
What a nice review of one man's rising hubris, the deer in the headlights look, and finally the downfall as the gambler realizes that he cannot borrow any more money to stage his comeback. Frankly, with his know it all and condescending tone in the beginning, this is one dog that deserves to be kicked while he is down. Of course he is going to be the first crybaby to wonder why everyone is so mean...
Jeffy spend months & 1000's of posts drooling over 'My Beautiful Chart'. But he never got it. He literally received hundreds of cautionary posts.
And with anyone who dared inject a bit of sanity into his rosey worldview, Jeffy was a cocky, venemous prick .
So enjoy his sweet ride to the bottom. Help introduce him to his good pals Hubris & Shadenfreude. Oh, and his doppleganger Casey.
Indulge yourselves, it's healthy to enjoy watching Jeffy & Casey going down in flames.
Mail Guru
Another get-rich-quick fliptard. The mentality of "these people" is amazing. I guess they never read the "results are not typical" disclaimers on the bottom of the TV screen when watching those late night infomercials.
Somehow the idea of get-rich-quick means little to no work for these fools. There is always work involved, whether from the sweat of their brow or someone else's, there is work.
Jeff is eating crow... and probably getting a sick feeling in the pit of his stomach every time the phone rings.
No need to kick him while he is down, as (unlike certain others) he has a clear sense of his impending doom.
Jeff was not actually a Taco Bell night manager. He was joking about that. He was a psychologist with a PhD who worked at a university in San Deigo, and his wife is a medical doctor. Although he probably did quit his job to "invest" full time (or was fired--that part may be true).
I did look up his 3 properties in Cape Coral. As of October 2007, one of his properties is in some stage of foreclosure (there was a notice of default filed in Sep from the bank). One property is in both his and his wife's name; the other two are just in his wife's. I assume using her as the primary buyer (being a doctor) was the main way he was able to qualify for so many loans. I don't believe there was any deception here--the Casey Serin comparison is only valid in that he bought a boatload of properties at the market peak in a short period of time.
He and his wife also own a house in San Diego that they bought for $680k in 2004, but Zillow valued it as high as $1M at the peak. So, he was also drawing from a HELOC to make some of these deal happen.
Anyways, even with a doctor's salary, you can't carry 10+ negative cashflow properties. Thus, they will probably lose one or more of their Cape Coral properties to foreclosure (as I said, one is already in that stage). His other investments will probably all tank as well--he bought way to close to the top of the market.
Anyways, I hope people reading about his story learn the lesson: real estate is NOT always a safe investment. Sometimes it can ruin you financially--even if you have a high income.
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This is Jeff From SDCIA!
More than a decade has gone by, it was a financial and emotional struggle, and I had to short sale those three CC homes...
...but I still have 11 of my rentals and a portfolio of 3.34 Million in real estate with an equity position of over 1 Million dollars.
For those that want to hear the end of the story...that is how this all worked out.
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